Verisk puts Japan M7.5 Ishikawa earthquake insured loss below $3.3bn

Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions business unit has estimated the insurance industry loss from the January 1st M7.5 earthquake that hit near the Noto peninsula in Ishikawa prefecture, Japan, at between JPY 260 billion (US $1.8 billion) and JPY 480 billion (US $3.3 billion).

It’s the lowest of the insurance industry loss estimates to emerge so far, but still aligned with our market sources who largely point to a low to mid-single-digit billion figure for the eventual tally.

Previously, modelling firm Karen Clark & Company (KCC) put the insured losses from the quake at an estimated $6.4 billion.

Next to issue an insurance market loss estimate was CoreLogic, saying it is likely to be below $5 billion.

It’s important to note the differences in what actually gets included into an insurance industry loss estimate.

Verisk does not include elements such as automotive damage, business interruption losses, workers’ compensation claims, civil engineering (railway) risks, marine cargo and marine hull risks, aviation risks, transit warehouse risks, movable all risk, and personal accident risks, loss adjustment expenses, any losses due to non-modelled perils such as landslides, land and infrastructure losses, or demand surge.

So there is a considerable amount of the above categories and lines of business that could be privately insured, but not included in the US $1.8 billion to $3.3 billion loss estimate.

The best estimates we might eventually receive could be initial loss estimates from major global reinsurers, if ever released, as their market share may assist in gaining another view as to the eventual industry cost of this earthquake.

As we’d reported, catastrophe bond investment manager Plenum Investments said it did not expect any impact to positions in its portfolio, but cautioned there could be aggregate erosion from the earthquake.

While cat bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) manager Twelve Capital said it does not anticipate any direct losses due to the major earthquake in Japan to any positions it holds.

Also read:

– Japan earthquake insured loss likely below $5bn: CoreLogic.

– Japan M7.5 earthquake insured loss to reach $6.4 billion: KCC.

– Japan quake could fuel April 1 rate increases if excess layer reinsurance hit: AM Best.

– Direct losses from Japan quake unlikely, but damage widespread: Twelve Capital.

– No immediate cat bond impact expected from Japan earthquake: Plenum.

– Japan hit by magnitude 7.6 earthquake, structural damage and tsunami reported.