TSR maintains forecast for below-norm hurricane season, but adds 1 storm

Forecast group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is maintaining its forecast that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will see below-normal levels of activity, but it has added one named storm to the forecast in an update delivered today.

Back in April, TSR delivered its first pre-season forecast for the Atlantic hurricane months ahead, calling for 12 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater winds to form during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 84 generated.

Today, it’s final pre-season update, with the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially beginning tomorrow, calls for 13 named storms, with 6 becoming hurricanes, and 2 expected to be Category 3 or above.

The forecaster explained, “Although large uncertainties remain at the pre-season forecast range, it is likely that tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters will be slightly warmer than normal by August-September 2023, and moderate or strong El Niño conditions will develop and persist into the autumn, thereby contributing to enhanced trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and enhance vertical wind shear.

“The combined effect of these environmental factors is expected to suppress North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023.”

As a result, TSR predicts that Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 will be around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year norm.

Which is aligned with the majority of forecasts, except for the UK Met Office, who as we reported is calling for a high level of tropical storm activity this year, with an above normal number of hurricanes and major hurricanes expected to form.

There remains some discussion over the competing influences we will see during this hurricane season, of an El Nino on the one hand, versus very warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on the other.

The addition of 1 named storm to the TSR forecast perhaps reflects this uncertainty, to a degree. Our Artemis average across the forecasters we track still calls for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Track the 2023 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.