Tropical Storm Risk raises seasonal forecast to 12 hurricanes, 6 major
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has today updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now saying that it anticipates one additional hurricane will form, with one more expected to reach Category 3 or greater wind speeds, making for what it still expects to be a “hyperactive” year.
Back in April, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued a forecast for 22 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 217.
One month later, with expectations that the Atlantic basin will experience a “hyperactive” year with activity levels around 75% above the 1991-2020 norm, TSR is now calling for 24 named tropical storms, 12 of which are forecast to become hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, with the ACE index forecast to reach 226.
TSR explained on its forecast, “Although some uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2024, and for weak La Niña conditions to develop and persist through August-September 2024 and into the autumn.
“These two factors are both expected to have a strong enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.”
TSR has also updated its forecast for landfalling hurricanes for this 2024 Atlantic season, saying that still 5 tropical storm landfalls and 3 hurricane landfalls are possible in the United States this year.
Incorporating the latest updated TSR forecast figures, alongside those others we track, takes our Artemis Average forecast for the 2024 hurricane season, to 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, with a seasonal ACE Index score of 218.
TSR also said that it gives an 88% probability that the Atlantic ACE index will be in the upper tercile (>156), a 12% likelihood the ACE index will be in the middle tercile (75-156), and a minimal chance the ACE index will be in the lower tercile (<75) through the 2024 hurricane season.
Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
