Tropical Storm Risk raises hurricane season forecast to “hyperactive”

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has today raised its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now saying it expects a “hyperactive” level of activity, with 11 Atlantic hurricanes now anticipated and 3 forecast likely to make landfall in the US.

Back last December, TSR issued its long-range forecast, calling for 20 tropical storms to form, 9 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 developing into intense or major hurricanes, driving an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 160.

Now, in today’s update, TSR has updated that to 22 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 217.

Of more importance than storm numbers to interests in the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets, is the potential for a threat to land and therefore of losses during the hurricane season.

TSR’s forecast update now includes some thoughts on landfall probabilities for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The forecaster now predicts that 5 named tropical storms and 3 hurricanes could make landfall on the United States through the coming Atlantic season.

Commenting on the outlook, the TSR team explained, “The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 raises its forecast and anticipates a hyper-active season with activity around 70% above the 1991- 2020 climate norm.

“Although some uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2024, and for moderate La Niña conditions to develop and persist through August-September 2024 and into the autumn. These two factors are both expected to have a strong enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.”

While they also explained, “Historically the skill of early April forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity is low, however with the primary climate factors very likely to be strongly enhancing for hurricane activity in 2024, the confidence in the forecast for a very active season is higher than what the low skill scores would imply.”

The TSR forecast comes on the heels of another calling for a very active season and higher landfall probabilities from Colorado State University.

Incorporating the TSR update figures alongside those others we track has now raised our Artemis Average across the forecasters we track, to now call for 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes and an ACE Index score of 212.

Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.