Storm Ciarán industry loss estimated up to €1.3bn by Verisk

European windstorm Ciarán is estimated to have caused an insurance industry loss of between €800 million and €1.3 billion, according to Verisk’s extreme event solutions, with the majority of the losses expected in France.

Storm Ciarán (also named Emir by the Free University of Berlin), impacted the United Kingdom, France and other parts of Europe through the first days of November.

Storm Ciarán was recorded with a central pressure of 952 mb, which was the lowest pressure ever recorded in England and Wales in November.

However, the storm’s strongest winds tracked further south through the English Channel, impacting northern France and the Channel Islands, helping to lower the estimate for insurance market losses.

As we had previously reported, insurance and reinsurance broker Aon’s Impact Forecasting division said that the economic and insured losses from storm Ciarán were expected to be “notable” with hundreds of millions of Euros anticipated for each.

Verisk’s extreme event solutions business unit does caution that the flooding seen in northern Italy from the very long trailing cold front associated with storm Ciarán will drive further losses and depending on how the hours clause applies for reinsurance, this may be a factor worth watching.

Verisk said, “This flooding, along with the impacts in France and elsewhere from windstorm Domingos over the past weekend, may contribute losses to this event, which, depending on hours clauses, could be considered a single loss occurrence along with Ciarán’s wind impacts.”

Commenting on the damage caused by the storm, Verisk explained, “Ciarán’s impacts were most pronounced in northwest France and the Channel Islands. In France, the worst damage was in the northwest, in Brest. Similar impacts were observed in the Channel Islands. Jersey in particular was very hard hit, with some of the more extreme roof and structural damage there likely caused by a strong tornado that was spawned by the storm. Jersey also saw golf ball-sized hail which contributed to both roof and automobile damage. The large amount of tree-related damage from this storm was exacerbated by the fact that most trees in the region still have leaves on them and the ground was quite saturated, making it more likely for trees to become uprooted or fall over.”

Verisk noted that its modeled insured loss estimate for European windstorm Ciarán includes insured physical damage from wind to property (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and motor, including structures and their contents, as well as business interruption and additional living expenses (for the UK only).

It does not include coastal or inland flooding losses, tornado or hail losses, additional living expenses except in the UK, demand surge, infrastructure losses, or any losses from storm Domingos, which affected France and Spain starting on Saturday 4th November (although the company did not the hours clause could make this a factor).