Solar projects threatened by costs, supply chains

More than half of this year’s expected utility-scale solar projects could face delays or cancellations due to the rising cost of raw materials and supply chain constraints, risk management society RIMS says.

The cost of photovoltaic solar modules used in solar has risen by nearly half in 12 months as the price of polysilicon trebled since mid 2020, RIMS says.

This means “56% of solar projects are at risk due to increasing costs,” RIMS says in a new White Paper.

RIMS says global renewable electricity capacity will rise more than 60% by 2026 — equal to the total global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear combined – giving rise to associated technology risks.

Investment in solar power is estimated at $US170 billion ($237 billion) this year, and in five years solar will account for nearly half of the increase in global power capacity.

Four emerging risks will define the solar industry in 2022, RIMS says: Natural hazards like wildfires and floods, rising costs for parts and spares, human error and site selection.

“As governments enact ambitious clean energy policies and fossil fuel costs rise, renewable energy is being deployed at an ever-increasing pace. Generating power from solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable sources is on pace for incredible acceleration in the coming years,” RIMS says.

“With the right design choices and business continuity planning, risks can be minimized, and downtime can be avoided.”

Renewable power will make up 95% of the increase in global power capacity through to 2026, it says, and solar power will account for more than half of that total.

“The risk exposures are large, and accidents lead to expensive losses. Risk engineering can help you identify risks like fire, natural catastrophes, and equipment failure while keeping you compliant with industry standards,” RIMS says.

To combat natural hazards, RIMS recommends building substations and inverters at elevations greater than the 100-year flood line in prone areas, and that when solar panels are at their maximum tilt, the lower edge of the panel remains higher than the 100-year flood level.

Flood sensors that move panels to a safe stow position as flood waters rise help, as can channelling water around key assets and addressing vegetation that might trap water and build up debris on site.

Installing panels at angles can reduce the impact from hail, as can choosing panels with a higher impact rating.

For fire, a formal maintenance plan that includes thermal scanning of arrays, inverters and transformers, as well as regular inspections help. Bushfires can destroy solar installations and smoke damage can cause solar generation to plummet, and mitigation efforts can include clearing a defensible space around the site and minimising fuel loads.

Human error is a leading cause of loss in solar, with panel handling in transport and installation particularly crucial because microcracking and panel damage can lead to outages. RIMS recommends formal preventive or predictive maintenance schedules.

It also says finding locations with proper sunlight that aren’t being used for agriculture – and aren’t in high flood zones – is “no easy task”.

“Careful site selection is one of the best opportunities to mitigate the frequency and severity of loss potential at a solar farm,” RIMS says.