Property & Casualty Market Outlook for 2019-2020

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UPDATE: This market outlook provided our reaction to market trends and some pricing expectations. With Q3 and Q4 of 2019 now behind us, we thought it would be beneficial to share an update with new insights and observations to better prepare our clients for current pricing pressures and provide guidance for managing the net impact. Read our Property & Casualty Market Update (January 2020) here.

At Scott Insurance, our clients often ask us to predict how their property & casualty insurance costs will change year-over-year. While each company has their own unique characteristics that affect pricing, we can make some general market observations to help clients prepare for the future.

Looking back, 2017 brought near-record highs in U.S. catastrophe losses due to the hurricane trifecta of Harvey, Irma and Maria. While 2018 saw a reduction in these losses (down to $37 billion versus $53 billion*), hurricane Michael and historic wildfires in California made it the second highest loss year since 2011. Despite two near-record-setting catastrophe loss years, carriers are posting lower combined ratios due to a combination of diligent underwriting discipline, moderate price increases, favorable loss development and higher interest rates.

What does this mean for the property & casualty insurance buyer?

Buyers will most likely see premium increases across one or more coverage lines. That being said, while we anticipate some rate fluctuations for certain lines of coverage and classes of business, we predict a stable overall outlook the U.S. property and casualty insurance market.