Out with the old: new fire danger rating system introduced

A new, nationally consistent fire rating system which more accurately predicts bushfire threat has been rolled out today in time for the impending fire season.

Six fire risk ratings have been replaced with four in the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System, launched today by the Bureau of Meteorology and the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC), which says Australia’s diverse ecosystems had not previously been well represented.

Road-side signs across Australia will be replaced to show the new four levels of risk: Moderate – plan and prepare, High – be ready to act, Extreme – take action now to protect your life and property, and Catastrophic – for your survival leave bushfire risk areas.

“It’s a simpler system that gives communities clear actions to take,” AFAC said. “The system will deliver nationally consistent fire danger ratings backed by enhanced data and information.”

Since the 1960s, Australia has been using the McArthur meter developed with CSIRO which is based on just forest and grass fire behaviour models for all of Australia. The new system models forest, grassland, grassy woodland, spinifex, shrubland, mallee heath, buttongrass and pine.

This improves danger prediction accuracy as fire moves in a different way through vegetation types.

“Grass fires can move three times faster than bush fires and are our greatest threat this season,” NSW Minister for Emergency Services and Resilience Steph Cooke said.

Continuous, heavy rainfall across many parts of NSW has led to an increase in the growth of fuel loads, and NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Rob Rogers says this poses a risk as the seasons change.

“Over the coming weeks and months, we are particularly concerned about the likelihood of grass and crop fires as the state starts to dry out,” he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology will provide Fire Danger Rating Tables showing four days of forecast Fire Danger Ratings, and issue Fire Weather Warnings when required.

A more detailed Fire Behaviour Index will provide a scale of potential fire intensity, flame height, rate of spread and spotting potential. This will guide when it is safe to prescribed burn and Total Fire Ban declarations.

Training for the new rating system is available here.