Ireland on course for consecutive Grand Slams but could a full strength England give them a surprise at Twickenham?

Authored by QBE Head of Media Relations & Content Sandra Villanueva

According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, England are set to lose a fourth consecutive Six Nations match to Ireland when the two sides face off at Twickenham on Saturday.

After a flat and disappointing performance against Scotland in Round 3, England will be hoping for an improved showing in front of a partisan home crowd, although there may not be much optimism amongst those sat in the stands. Ireland have won all three of their matches so far and are looking to become the first side in the Six Nations era to win back-to-back Grand Slams. A win at Twickenham on Saturday would put them one step closer to achieving this feat and would also be the second time in the last twenty years that they have won four consecutive Six Nations matches against England, highlighting their recent dominance in the fixture.

English hopes will be boosted by the return of Marcus Smith and Alex Mitchell who are both back in the squad and in contention for the match this weekend. It will be interesting to see if Smith comes back into the starting line-up having not featured at all in the tournament this year. Head Coach Steve Borthwick has been hesitant to make wholesale changes despite the mediocre performances to date. Ireland have been imperious and look to be a level above the rest of the competition, however, a match between England and Ireland at Twickenham sometimes throws form out of the window. England will be hoping to spring a surprise and halt the Irish charge for a grand slam. That being said, the QBE Predictor forecasts a closer match than some giving Ireland a margin of just nine points in an 18-27 victory.

In the other fourth round fixtures the QBE Predictor gives Scotland an 89% chance of victory as they face an Italian side who will be equally saddened and encouraged after their draw against France. Scotland will be hoping Ireland slip up against England making the match between the two sides next week a winner takes all showdown. In the last match of the weekend Wales host France who will be looking to bounce back with a win; the Predictor gives them a 66% chance of doing just that.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“The odds may seem stacked against England this weekend but nothing is ever certain. While a win for Ireland looks likely, England could throw a spanner in the works and if they are going to do it, Twickenham looks like the most likely place for them to cause an upset. As we advise our customers to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

Round Four score predictions:
 

Score Prediction

Outcome Probability

Home

Away

Home win

Away win

Draw

Italy

14

35

Scotland

10%

89%

1%

England

18

27

Ireland

26%

72%

2%

Wales

16

23

France

31%

66%

3%

Tournament Predictions:

Winner

QBE Predictor

Ireland

95%

Scotland

4%

England

1%

France

0%

Wales

0%

Italy

0%

The QBE Predictor simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.