Hurricane Helene insured wind/surge property loss in Florida/Georgia initially said $3bn – $5bn: CoreLogic

Insured private market property losses from hurricane Helene’s winds and storm surge across the US states of Florida and Georgia are initially estimated in a range from $3 billion to $5 billion, according to CoreLogic.

The company said that there is still “significant uncertainty due to the wind field” and that its estimate is for the private insurance and reinsurance market only, so does not include losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or to offshore property.

CoreLogic also said, “Losses from Helene are predicted to be split roughly evenly between Florida and Georgia.

“The area of landfall around Perry, Florida has some of the least stringent wind resistance design standards, which is likely contributing to losses.”

CoreLogic’s initial estimate includes damage to buildings, contents, and business interruption for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural property.

This is far from an all-encompassing insurance industry loss estimate then, given the flood impacts from Hurricane Helene have been significant and far-reaching inland as the storm transitioned to extratropical and drove catastrophic impacts through much of the southeastern region over the last 24 hours.

CoreLogic said, “At the time of landfall, storm surge was forecast at up to 20 feet between the Aucilla River and Chassahowitzka River. Tampa Bay was forecast to see storm surge of up to 8 feet. Outside of Florida, the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina may be impacted by surge of up to 3 feet.

“This hurricane is the most powerful storm to ever hit the Florida Big Bend, bringing extreme winds and flooding to the region. On Friday, Sept. 27, the storm surge affecting this region and parts of Florida’s west coast is expected to have subsided. Strong wind gusts will continue to spread inland across Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly in the southern Appalachians’ higher elevations, bringing potential power outages.

“Life-threatening flash flooding, including urban flooding and significant landslides, is forecasted to impact portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. In northwestern and northern Florida, as well as throughout the Southeast, widespread flash and urban flooding is also expected. Significant river flooding is likely, and some areas may experience major or record-breaking levels.”

Tom Larsen, associate vice president of hazard and risk management at CoreLogic said, “Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry Florida, an area that has less robust home construction standards than south Florida, which is accustomed to large landfalling hurricanes every couple of years. We expect a great deal of atypical damages in Florida’s Big Bend region due to this area’s inexperience enduring intense hurricanes.

“We anticipate the damaging effects of Helene will be deep inland with a large contribution of loss concentrated in the state of Georgia. We can look to Hurricanes Francis and Jeanne (Florida, 2004) and Superstorm Sandy (New York, 2012) as examples. These storms affected large swaths of residents with tropical storm- and hurricane-force winds and triggered widespread losses.”

Also read:

– Losses to per-occurrence cat bonds from hurricane Helene currently seen as unlikely: Twelve Capital.
– Hurricane Helene landfall at Cat 4 140mph winds, Tampa Bay sees historic surge flooding.
– Hurricane Helene industry loss seen $3bn to $6bn if Tampa avoided: Gallagher Re.
– Minimal to no cat bond impact expected from hurricane Helene if track unchanged: Plenum.