Hurricane Helene industry loss seen $3bn to $6bn if Tampa avoided: Gallagher Re

Reinsurance broker Gallagher Re has said today that it anticipates the insurance and reinsurance industry loss from hurricane Helene will be in a range of $3 billion to $6 billion, but should it shift closer to Tampa then “the cost to the private insurance market and federally run insurance programs would be expected to notably exceed USD10 billion.”

But, Gallagher Re notes that the Tampa scenario is “currently considered quite unlikely.”

Hurricane Helene is a 90 mph storm right now, but the NHC says that rapid intensification is possible up to landfall, which is currently anticipated for the central Big Bend area of Florida.

Giving its preliniary loss view, the reinsurance broker explained, “Landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle region of Florida as a major hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) has historically translated to insured losses in the low single-digit billions (USD). But Helene is not a typical storm. Given Helene’s very large wind radius, this would still bring hurricane-force wind gusts and high storm surge to coastal areas in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, tropical storm force winds across most of the Florida peninsula, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and southern Appalachia.

“This initially suggests that Helene’s private insurance market losses should be expected to land in the range of USD3 billion to USD6 billion. This is subject to change. Additional losses attributed to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the USDA’s crop insurance program may approach USD1 billion.”

But added, “If Helene unexpectedly shifts further east much closer to Tampa, then the cost to the private insurance market and federally run insurance programs would be expected to notably exceed USD10 billion. This scenario is currently considered quite unlikely. Flood-related impacts alone, notably storm surge inundation, could be significant in the Tampa area.”

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