Goldman poll finds insurers with $13T expect U.S. recession

Insurance executives who oversee more than $13 trillion in assets expect the U.S. to enter a recession in the near future, according to an annual survey conducted by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Of 328 chief investment officers and chief financial officers polled, more than 60% anticipate the world’s largest economy will experience a downturn in the next two to three years. The results indicate “a clear shift in outlook globally,” Goldman said in the report.

In another departure from prior results, 59% of respondents identified inflation as one of the top three macroeconomic risks to investment portfolios, with 28% ranking it No. 1. Meanwhile, 43% listed tightening U.S. monetary policy among their top three, with 20% assigning it to the top slot.

The change in perspective arrives as Federal Reserve officials signal they will take aggressive steps to rein in spiraling costs and wages. The consumer price index hit a 40-year high last month, while robust jobs data published Friday added to mounting evidence that the economy is overheating. Goldman conducted its survey before Russia invaded Ukraine, and the war has only worsened supply-chain snarls and materials shortages. Insurers are evaluating investments that could help them counter those risks.

“We expect to see insurers continue to build positions in private asset classes as well as inflation hedges, including private equity, private credit, and real estate,” Michael Siegel, global head of insurance asset management for Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a statement. “These assets can prove integral to diversifying portfolios while optimizing capital-adjusted returns, particularly over a longer-term time horizon.”

More than a third of insurers placed commodities among the top three assets they expect to deliver the highest total returns in the next 12 months, a ranking that’s been dominated by private equity and emerging market equities for the last three years.

Even so, the report found “respondents indicate little to no appetite for increased allocation to commodities in 2022,” likely due to “high historical volatility and capital inefficiency.”