England to continue their resurgence against Japan according to QBE Predictor

England face Japan on Sunday for only the third time and the QBE Predictor has them winning 33-13

Authored by QBE

Japan have punched above their weight at the last two World Cups, under Eddie Jones and Steve Borthwick they beat South Africa in 2015, and they started this tournament well with a 30-point win against a plucky Chile side in their opening pool match on Sunday.

England began their World Cup campaign successfully on Saturday with a 27-10 win over Argentina, who prior to this weekend’s matches were ranked sixth in the world and the strongest team on paper on England’s side of the draw. The tournament forecasts by QBE Business Insurance make England third favourites to win the World Cup, winning every match in the group stage. England are also given a 58% chance of making a semi-final, a 23% chance of making the final and a 12% chance of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup twenty years on from their triumph down under.

According to the QBE Predictor, England are given a better chance of winning the tournament than Ireland, South Africa and Wales and have a 66% chance of topping their group. Interestingly, the QBE Predictor thinks out of the 19 other teams in the tournament England would most likely lose to five were they to play each other: New Zealand, France, South Africa, Ireland and Scotland so their route to a final would rely on a fortunate draw. England do, however, find themselves on the ‘easier’ side of the draw so it is possible that they can repeat the feat of four years ago and progress to a World Cup final.

Despite New Zealand losing to hosts France on Friday night they are still favourites to lift the trophy for a record fourth time according to the QBE Predictor. The pick of the second round of matches is in Saint-Étienne on Sunday where Australia face a free-flowing Fiji side who were unlucky to lose a close match against Wales. This will go some way to deciding Pool C and the QBE Predictor forecasts a relatively comfortable 36-19 win for Eddie Jones’ men.

The other predictions for this weekend are: France 55-8 Uruguay, New Zealand 70-3 Namibia, Samoa 21-8 Chile, Wales 52-9 Portugal, Ireland 27-15 Tonga, South Africa 50-13 Romania.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said: “The Predictor made some surprise calls ahead of the tournament opening last week and, underlining the point that we must be prepared for surprise outcomes, some of those predictions proved correct. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model that simulates the tournament 3,750 times producing outcomes from 180,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past eight years against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.

Predictions for the tournament