Debby’s path tracking to drench eastern Canada

Hurricane Debby’s rain-soaked path is tracking to hit between Quebec and the Maritimes in Canada as a post-tropical storm by Saturday.

The Canadian National Hurricane Centre shows Montreal in the outermost western radius of the storm’s track, while Halifax is in the easternmost radius.

“Once Debby gains back its momentum, folks in Atlantic Canada and parts of southeastern Quebec could be feeling the tropical impacts over the weekend,” The Weather Network predicted Tuesday.

Debby made landfall in Florida Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane (wind speeds of 130 km/h) and brought intense winds, torrential rains, coastal flooding and tornadoes to the area Monday. The storm dropped between 200 mm and 400 mm of rain on parts of Florida, The Weather Network reported Tuesday.

About a day before reaching Canada, Debby is forecast to hover over North Carolina, causing widespread flood damage. The storm is currently stalled over Georgia and the Carolinas.

“Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding,” the U.S. National Hurricane Centre predicted Tuesday. “Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding impacts from northern North Carolina through portions of Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England through Sunday morning.”

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Since the storm is moving overland and not over the sea, its intensity is expected to decrease, since it will not be drawing energy from the warm ocean waters, The Weather Network predicts.

“Debby’s time spent inland will serve to weaken the storm, as it will be largely cut off from its warm oceanic fuel,” the weather service said Tuesday. “By the time it starts moving again, it is expected to regress into a tropical depression.

“Forecast models are currently suggesting that Debby could re-enter the Atlantic Ocean near New York, re-strengthening back into tropical storm strength.”

A trough (a low atmospheric pressure) in Ontario will allow the storm to make its way north through Quebec and the Maritimes, The Weather Network forecasts, although the storm is currently stalled.

Two high-pressure systems on the U.S. eastern seaboard are making it hard to forecast the storm’s precise track, said The Weather Network. Also, they have had a ‘push-pull’ effect on the storm, causing it to stall in Georgia and the Carolinas.

“Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 250 mm to 500 mm of rainfall is expected, with local amounts potentially reaching 760 mm,” The Weather Network predicted Tuesday.

On July 16, 2024, southern Ontario experienced flash flooding due to a series of strong thunderstorms, which produced more than 100 mm of rainfall within a few hours. Toronto saw major flooding after a storm that dumped more than 90 mm of rain on the area.

It is estimated Ontario’s July 2024 storm will cost about $1 billion in insured damage.