Climate Council warns of 'powder keg' fire conditions for Australia

The Climate Council says Australia is “primed to burn” as increased vegetation from a protracted La Nina season sets up dangerous conditions ahead of a return to drier and hot weather.

In a new report, it attributes the increased risk to a prolonged period of wet weather since the Black Summer fires of 2019/20, which has led to “prolific vegetation growth that’s creating powder keg conditions for future fires”.

“From 2020 to 2023, Australia experienced a multiyear ‘protracted’ La Nina episode that led to record-breaking rainfall and flooding along the east coast,” the Climate Council said.

“These heavy rains led to prolific growth of grass and bushland, including rapid regrowth in areas scorched by the Black Summer bushfire.”

The report says historical trends show that “grass fire follows floods,” noting previous periods of extended La Nina conditions in the 20th century and most recently in 2001, that led to significant fires.

“During each of these periods there was prolific growth of vegetation, followed by extensive grass fires across Australia, then by major forest fires causing loss of life and property on the east coast, particularly in New South Wales,” it said.

The report says firefighters are preparing for a year dominated by grass fires, which burn faster but less intensely than forest fires.

It says these grass fires could be “supercharged” by worsening climate change that is intensifying extreme weather.

“Firefighters fear that extensive grass fires that break out in hotter, drier, windier weather conditions than those experienced in 1974 – 1975 could be far more destructive and deadly, like those experienced in the United States in December 2021,” it said.

The findings come off projections from the Bureau of Meteorology, which expects drier and warmer conditions in the upcoming months.

In the past two weeks, firefighters across Queensland, NSW, SA and Victoria have been called to battle numerous uncontrolled blazes.