Are climate disasters actually decreasing?

Are climate disasters actually decreasing? | Insurance Business Asia

Reinsurance

Are climate disasters actually decreasing?

New study challenges widespread beliefs on increasing disaster trends

Reinsurance

By
Mav Rodriguez

A recent study suggests that natural and climate-related disasters have been decreasing, challenging the narrative presented by several prominent international agencies. This report aligns with the long-standing assertions of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), which has disputed claims of increasing climate disasters.

Organizations such as the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the International Red Cross (IFRC) have reported a rise in climate-related disasters. However, the GWPF has argued that these reports are misleading, suggesting that technological advancements since the 1970s have led to increased disaster reporting rather than an actual rise in disasters.

The new study by Italian scientists Gianluca Alimonti and Luigi Mariani in Environmental Hazards claimed a declining trend in the number of natural and climate-related disasters in the 21st century. Their analysis of disaster reports since 1900 reveals a significant decline in such events up to 2022.

“The assertion that we are facing an increasing trend of natural disasters, as claimed in the three official reports by UNDRR and FAO on the basis of the same EM-DAT dataset […] is not supported by data,” it said in the study.

The authors emphasized that the empirical data contradicts earlier analyses by the UN bodies, which predict an increasing number of natural disasters and impacts due to global warming: “Our analyses strongly refute this assertion as well as extrapolations published by UNDRR based on this claim.”

The scientists expressed concern over the misrepresentation of natural disaster trends, warning that such claims have been widely disseminated by various media and the FAO. They argued that this misrepresentation can lead to inconsistent policies at both national and international levels, potentially wasting resources or diverting them from more pressing issues.

“The new study by Alimonti and Mariani vindicates what we said in a GWPF report three years ago—climate-related disasters are not on the rise, despite global warming. Claims to the contrary have been made for years by several international agencies. Yet, these agencies failed to recognize that the apparent increase in natural disasters since the 1970s simply reflects a major increase in disaster reporting due to new technology,” said Dr. Ralph Alexander, who is an expert critique of erroneous climate disaster claims.

This is what GWPF director Dr. Benny Peiser had to say.

“There is a famous saying that sums up the GWPF’s efforts to set the record straight on disaster trends and climate disasters: ‘First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then they join you.’”