Active hurricane season forecast from NC State highlights Gulf of Mexico risk

Researchers from North Carolina State University have forecast that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one, with the number of named storms predicted to be “significantly higher than the long-term average” and a special mention for the Gulf of Mexico, with up to seven named storms expected there.

The North Carolina State University forecasters are among the teams we have tracked here on Artemis for well over a decade, as a service to our insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market readers.

Details of all the forecasts are available on our dedicated Atlantic hurricane season page for 2024.

The North Carolina State University forecast team are calling for between 15 and 20 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the 2024 hurricane season, with an active season expected.

This is aligned with other forecasters, although perhaps notable as it is the lowest forecast of those we track.

Out of the 15 to 20 named tropical storms expected in the Atlantic in 2024, the NC State researchers predict that between 10 and 12 could strengthen to become hurricanes.

This hurricane forecast is closer to the average of those other forecast teams we track.

Out of the 10 to 12 hurricanes that are forecast to form by the NC State team, they anticipate between 3 and 4 becoming major hurricanes with category 3 wind speeds or greater.

The number of named storms predicted is “significantly higher than the long-term average, and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages”, Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State said.

Xie’s methodology looks at over 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, and takes into account other variables, such as weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to come up with a prediction for how many storms will form in each ocean basin.

For the Gulf of Mexico, Xie forecasts a slightly more active hurricane season in 2024.

Out of the 15 to 20 named storms forecast, between 5 and 7 are predicted to form in the region of the Gulf of Mexico, with between 2 and 4 of them becoming hurricanes and 1 to 2 becoming major hurricanes.

The historic averages for the Gulf are just 3 named storms and 2 hurricanes.

While a little lower than some of the forecasts, in terms of named storms, the number of hurricanes are still forecast to be very high by the NC State University team.

Incorporating these NC State forecast figures, alongside those others we track, has now moderated our Artemis Average slightly, to now call for 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, with a seasonal ACE Index score of 212.

Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.