Hurricane Milton: First Tampa Bay storm surge indications 8 to 12 feet

Hurricane Milton has strengthened into a 100 mph storm and is expected to become a major hurricane later today. The NHC has now begun including storm surge height indications in its updates on Milton and from-the-off they call for between 8 and 12 feet of storm surge to impact Tampa Bay.

Here, it’s worth noting that while the NHC will be taking into account what might happen over the next two days as hurricane Milton heads for the Florida Gulf Coast, it’s entirely possible the storm surge heights indicated rise as Milton is expected to expand significantly in wind field terms.

That has the potential to exacerbate the surge, pushing more water up against Florida’s western coastline.

The latest NHC update gives the following storm surge height indications:

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft

The NHC said there is “a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.”

You can see the peak storm surge forecast heights below:

In recent hurricane Helene Tampa Bay experienced storm surge in the 4 to roughly 7 foot range. But a height of more than 10 feet could flood much of downtime Tampa and some meteorologists say the cities airport would not be safe at this height.

In addition, the widespread 5 to 10 foot of storm surge will be damaging as well, with areas of the coast to the south of Tampa that have high concentrations of insured values and very low-lying coastlines.

It’s going to be worth watching how the surge forecast develops as hurricane Milton intensifies further and is then set to start expanding, which will push potentially significant amounts of water up on the Florida west coast.

Landfall location will also be a storm surge driver, especially for Tampa Bay and other inlets further south.

We’ll keep you updated.

Also read:

– Hurricane Milton is biggest potential ILS market threat since Ian in 2022: Steiger, Icosa.

– Hurricane Milton forecast for costly Florida landfall. Cat bond & ILS market on watch.