Hurricane Ernesto picks up strength, tracking to hit Atlantic Canada

Newfoundland and possibly Nova Scotia may be upcoming stops for Hurricane Ernesto after the category 3 hurricane barrels into the Caribbean.

And the forecasts warn of significant damage from the third hurricane this season.

Expected to hit Bermuda on Saturday, Ernesto looks ready to continue its path to Canada’s Atlantic coast as it tracks northeastward, the Canadian Hurricane Centre says.

“The hurricane is forecast to be rather large, intensify to category-3 level, and generate large ocean swell that will begin arriving along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday,” says the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

It’s too early to know if any of the storm’s circulation will reach Nova Scotia, however, “There is a slightly greater possibility of Ernesto influencing weather over Newfoundland,” the statement reads.

“Interests in Canadian offshore zones should certainly pay attention to this storm.”

Storm track

The storm’s centre is expected to be just south of Nova Scotia as it travels. The hurricane track shows its range will more likely hit St. John’s, Newfoundland, as well as inward to the middle of the province.

“Increasingly hazardous surf and rip currents can be expected Sunday. Beachgoers and sightseers are encouraged to exercise caution,” says the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Canadian Hurricane Centre

However, there are factors that could influence where, when or if the Atlantic sees landfall, says AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist, Alex Sosnowski.

“Because of the highly variable shape of the coastline in Atlantic Canada and the increasing forward speed of [Ernesto] early next week, pinpointing the exact landfall time and location poses a challenge,” Sosnowski writes.

“At this time, landfall could occur as early as late Sunday night to late Monday in Atlantic Canada.”

Even if the centre of the hurricane tracks farther out to sea than it does on land, “there will still be some coastal impacts due to high surf, and even some cloud cover and rain,” says the Weather Network.

And if the track does head for eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, strong winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding are on the menu.

Possible impacts

The industry should be on the lookout for damage potential, should Ernesto merge with the atmospheric jet stream.

So far, Ernesto and the jet stream (i.e., the river of air high up in the atmosphere which influences weather systems) will remain separate, says Accuweather’s meteorologists.

That means the jet stream is not expected to influence the storm in a way that could significantly change its trajectory or intensity.

Because of this, two-to-four inches of rainfall is most likely, with potential for eight inches of rain where the hurricane center goes ashore.

“Rainfall of this intensity would lead to flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts,” says AccuWeather.

However, rainfall will intensify if Ernesto and the jet stream merge over Atlantic Canada, “and a widespread major flooding event might unfold with significant risk to lives and property,” AccuWeather says.

AccuWeather also rates the hurricane as a level 3, factoring in rain, storm surge and economic loss potential.

Its meteorologists say this hurricane season will host a lot of tropical storms and hurricanes. And, “some storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification due largely to the ongoing higher-than-historical average water temperatures.”