Windstorm Ciarán (Emir) industry loss initially said €1.9bn: PERILS

Recent European extratropical windstorm Ciarán, which was also named Emir, is set to become one of the largest storm losses in northern Europe in almost two decades, with the initial insurance and reinsurance industry loss estimate set at almost €1.9 billion by PERILS.

That’s the highest industry loss for a single European windstorm event, rather than a cluster, since Kyrill in 2007, it appears.

Windstorm Ciarán (Emir) impacted France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands between November 1st and 2nd 2023 and saw some of the strongest wind gusts experienced in Europe for some years.

France bore the brunt of the nearly €1.9 billion of insured losses, with €1.593 billion attributed to the country.

PERILS explained, “The low-pressure system associated with Windstorm Ciarán initially formed off the coast of Newfoundland. The event was named “Ciarán” by the UK Met Office and “Emir” by the Free University of Berlin on 29 October. Throughout the night of 1 to 2 November, Windstorm Ciarán’s central low tracked eastwards along the English Channel, before moving out over the North Sea by noon. During this period, the storm’s footprint covered the English Channel and coastal regions of southern England and northern France with heavy rain and extremely high wind gusts in some areas.

“As the system moved further across the North Sea with a weakening central pressure, strong winds affected Belgium and the Netherlands. Through the evening of 2 November, Windstorm Ciarán further weakened before dissipating on 3 November.”

Losses experienced by the insurance industry were typical for a European windstorm, with a large number of smaller claims, mostly from non-structural property damage, adding up to a significant total, PERILS said.

Christoph Oehy, CEO of PERILS, said, “Even though Windstorm Ciarán brought record winds to Brittany, its impact could have been much worse had the storm’s path been more southerly or northerly. As it was, the most extreme winds tracked over the English Channel and hence spared large population centres.

“Nevertheless, the loss to the insurance industry was considerable, with France leading the tally by a significant margin, followed by the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands. For France, which saw event losses estimated at EUR 1,593 million, Windstorm Ciarán is the largest loss since Windstorm Klaus in 2009. Looking at historical windstorm losses for France, such a windstorm loss level has an estimated return period of approximately once every twelve years.”

Klaus’ industry loss was estimated at only EUR 1,574 million.

PERILS first estimate for Ciarán is considerably higher than the public estimates from risk modellers, as Verisk had pegged the storm at between €800 million and €1.3 billion and Moody’s RMS had put it at between €900 million and €1.5 billion.

Ciarán was followed by extratropical windstorm “Domingos”, also known as “Fred”, but PERILS said this did not exceed its reporting threshold of EUR 300 million.

PERILS recently estimated that European windstorms Babet and Aline from October this year caused an insurance industry loss of around €509 million.